Thursday, May 21, 2015

Sell High On Upton


Gaslamp Ball -The Friars were looking to get some sort of winning streak going, some sort of groove, and launch themselves back into the .500+ team we're all hyping them to be. With injuries poking their ugly heads out early in the season and a shaky defense, the Pads had a good shot with Ross & Co.
Tyson Ross was looking to keep some consistency with his last three starts, pitching a combination of 18 innings and giving up only 6 earned runs. Tonight he lasted a full 7, giving up 3 earned runs but striking out 8. His conceded runs were the result of two sacrifices (ground out, fly) and an RBI-triple.
Another night with a lineup missing a crucial Wil Myers and Yonder Alonso relied heavily on the Abraham Almonte leadoff strat. Abe was the bunting hero of last night went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts, one of them on a ball in the dirt to end the game. Matt Kemp joined him at 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts, and Jedd Gyorko went 0-for-3 with a walk.
The only offensive bursts of tonight were from Justin Upton on a two-run HR smashed to center field. Derek Norris went 1-for-2 with two walks, Yangervis Solarte went 1-for-3 with a walk as well, and Will Middlebrooks had a great night going 2-for-4 with a leadoff double in the fifth. All of this wasn't enough to handle the anti-clutchness of the Gyorko GDP's and the Kemp K's with RISP.
By the way, that's Upton's 11th HR of the season, and 9th at home.

Everyone in San Diego has to be kinda worried about the Padres moving their most explosive bat they have had in a LONG LONG time. The usual deadline dump is just gaining respectable prospects. The Padres should use the Upton Asset earlier than the deadline to get legit ML talent and some prospects. I think this squad could move him for the right pieces to make the 2015 squad better. I also would hope they could package one of their financial mistakes alone with Upton (Gyorko). Melvin Uptons deal is unmovable until he can prove that he can consistently hit again.
Make no mistake about it that moving his bat would not be great for the offense but could make the team better overall. They have a log jam in the outfield. Myers could move to a corner outfield spot with Veneable taking the majority of the reps in center. That would easily improve the defensive range of the outfield. 
The other glaring weakness is central infield defense and production. Now I fully admit replacing a SS right now or before the deadline that would make sense (available/feasible/financially prudent) is tough. I have a feeling that Zack Cozart could make the most sense. Cincy probably will fade and they have a ton of money locked up with other guys. 
Spangenburg needs to be the everyday Second Baseman because of his range and speed in the lineup. Hopefully he continues to gain confidence at the dish this year. But, his Defensive range is very much needed at the moment.

AJ needs to earn his "Rockstar GM" nickname because as of now his moves brought excitement and names but an incomplete product of pieces that don't fit together.

Official Prediction:
Padres should move Upton to the Mets. Mets need a bat more than I need Coffee every morning. Get either deGrom or Syndergaard. They can afford to move one of their top pitchers because of their rotation depth in the bigs and farm. Syndergaard is supposedly up for the taking for the right trade. 
Here is where AJ Preller needs to earn his stripes because it would obviously need to be a 3 team trade to include an infielder bc the Mets SS's stink. He should also be able to land a prospect or 2. Maybe regain a draft pick that he doesn't have for the upcoming draft.
Upton gone with the acquisition of Syndergaard and Cozart would make the 2015 better and also much better coming into 2016 because there is NO SHOT that Upton is on the Padres once Free Agency begins. The move would be also easier if Kemp could start hitting with power as well.

*This is all given the expected healthy returns of Alonso/Myers with their continued production. 

P.S.  Full disclosure if I were the Mets I wouldn't do this deal and just try to get Upton in the offseason. Obviously Mets need bats to make it work this year but if they can keep that staff healthy and gain 2 bats in 2016 they could be unstoppable.

P.P.S.  Can't have a guy that plays 1yr or less for the club smash the HR record in Petco. Might have to move him by June 1st to secure that hallowed record set by Venable. Yep, Will Venable holds that record. Sad City.



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